Prebuttal: Kemp vs. the Facts
October 9, 1996

Jack Kemp plays with boundless enthusiasm, but the question for tonight’s debate will be whether he strays out of bounds or stays on the field of facts. Watch out for some of these errant throws:

1993 CLINTON-GORE ECONOMIC PROGRAM

Rhetoric: The Clinton plan "does not create jobs, at least in the private sector. It’s going to create a lot of jobs in the public sector and in the bureaucracy." [Meet the Press, 3/7/93]

Reality: Not true. Under Clinton-Gore, the economy has added 10.5 million new jobs -- a faster rate of job growth than any Republican Administration since the 1920s. [Data from Bureau of Labor Statistics, 10/4/96] Of these 10.5 million jobs, 93 percent are in the private-sector -- a higher private sector share than any Administration since Harry S Truman. [Data from the BLS, 10/4/96] The conservative business magazine Barron’s -- and Bob Dole himself last February -- called the economy the best in over 30 years. [Barron’s 3/18/96; Dole remarks in NH, 2/13/96, Release by Dole Campaign, 2/20/96]

LARGEST TAX INCREASE

Rhetoric: "[Democrats] raised taxes -- the biggest, I guess, of this century." [Washington Post, 9/2/96]

Reality: Kemp’s position was different before he was Bob Dole’s running mate. In 1994, Jack Kemp’s Empower America said Dole’s 1982 hike was "the largest tax increase in recent years." [Empower America Reality Check, 2/24/94] In 1988, Kemp said Dole’s increase amounted to "$1600 for every man, woman and child." [St. Petersburg Times, 2/11/88] Every serious observer agrees that Bob Dole’s 1982 tax increase is the largest in history. New York Times, 11/3/95: "It is not true that the $240 billion tax increase approved by Congress in 1993 at Mr. Clinton's behest is the largest in American history. When adjusted for inflation...a tax increase engineered by Mr. Dole in 1982, when he was the chairman of Senate Finance Committee, was larger."

KEMP-ROTH

Rhetoric: After the Kemp-Roth tax cuts "the revenues coming into the government by lowering the tax rates by 25 percent, actually -- revenues grew by 40 percent." [ Sec. Kemp on Meet the Press, 10/6/96]

Reality: Contrary to this supply-side myth, after Reagan's 1981 tax cut, real personal income tax revenues fell for three consecutive years. They did not recover to their 1981 level until 1986, even though the economy was in recovery. [Dept. of the Treasury] This loss of income tax revenue helped explode the deficit. The only revenues that went up were from Social Security taxes, owing to increases in the payroll tax rates in 1981, 1982, 1984, 1985 and 1986. [Dept. of the Treasury] From 1980 to 1986 -- when the Republicans controlled the White House and the Senate -- the deficit nearly tripled, increasing from $74 billion in FY80 to $221 billion in FY86. [CBO, 5/96]

WAGES AND INCOMES

Rhetoric: "The income of working men and women in America is dropping or stagnant." [Kemp Acceptance Speech, 8/15/96]

Reality: Real median household income increased more in 1995 than in any year in a decade, and the typical family’s income, adjusted for inflation, has increased by $1,631 since 1993. [Census Bureau, 9/26/96] After falling by 79 cents during the Reagan-Bush years, "real wages are rising for the first time in a decade." [Based on data from BLS, 10/4/96; Business Week, 3/11/96]

MEDICARE

Rhetoric: "Bob Dole and I are going to save and strengthen Medicare. The Democratic Party has [been]...scaring the elderly into thinking otherwise..." [Jack Kemp, AP, 10/02/96]

Reality: Bob Dole reaffirmed his vote against Medicare just last year. "I was there, fighting the fight, voting against Medicare -- one of 12 -- because we knew it wouldn’t work in 1965." [Dole Speech to the American Conservative Union 10/24/95]. In 1995, Dole-Gingrich tried to cut Medicare by $270 billion -- increasing premiums by $1700 per couple over 7 years. The experts agree -- 83% of economists surveyed by the Economist said Dole would have to cut Medicare to balance the budget and enact his risky tax scheme. [Economist, October 5, 1996] His own Campaign Co-Chair, Senator Al D’Amato, was more candid than Senator Dole: "You’re gonna have to look at Medicare...I mean, I’m not running this year, so I can say it and tell the truth." [Don Imus Show, 8/12/96]

REGULATION

Rhetoric: "[The economy is] moving like a ship dragging an anchor, the anchor of taxes, and excessive regulations..." [Kemp Acceptance Speech, 8/15/96]

Reality: From 1986 to 1993, the volume of federal regulations grew by 10,000 pages [Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs, 10/96] The Clinton-Gore Administration is cutting them by 16,000 pages. Under the Vice President’s National Performance Review, the growth in new regulations that took place when Sec. Kemp was running HUD has been reversed. The Small Business Administration has cut its loan application form from one inch to one page. [NPR Report, 9/96] And HUD has eliminated 1,782 pages of regulations that it inherited from Secretary Kemp. [OIRA, 8/31/96]

BUDGET/SPENDING CUTS Rhetoric: "Balancing the budget while cutting taxes is just a matter of presidential will." [Kemp Acceptance Speech, 8/15/96]

Reality: What Bob Dole used to say about the deficit: "You can’t just wish it away. We can’t just say, ‘Well, we’re just going to cut taxes’ -- that’s called supply side, as I recall it -- if you just cut taxes enough, the deficit’s going to go away. Baloney." [Natl. Fed. of GOP Women Speech, 5/21/91] 546 economists and 7 Nobel Prize winners say the Dole plan will "raise the federal deficit" and lead to the "lowering of future living standards." [EPI sponsored letter, 9/4/96] Time magazine said: "[A]nalysts say agencies from the FBI to the Transportation Department could face cuts as deep as 40%." [9/23/96] Of course, balancing the budget never mattered much to Jack Kemp: "[T]he most important thing with all due respect, is not balancing the budget." [NBC Today Show, 8/5/96]